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confindustria] [[Prediction Registry]]: [[About the Prediction Registry|About]] |
A lot of people make predictions about the future, but some people seem to predict more accurately than others. There are many cases in which knowledge of whose vision of the future has been clearer would be very valuable, especially in discussions of policy; the opinion of someone with a good predictive record should obviously hold substantially more persuasive weight than that of someone with an average record, or no record at all, while that person's advice should in turn probably be heeded more than that of someone with a comparatively poor record. | A lot of people make predictions about the future, but some people seem to predict more accurately than others. There are many cases in which knowledge of whose vision of the future has been clearer would be very valuable, especially in discussions of policy; the opinion of someone with a good predictive record should obviously hold substantially more persuasive weight than that of someone with an average record, or no record at all, while that person's advice should in turn probably be heeded more than that of someone with a comparatively poor record. | ||
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Revision as of 17:41, 24 September 2007
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A lot of people make predictions about the future, but some people seem to predict more accurately than others. There are many cases in which knowledge of whose vision of the future has been clearer would be very valuable, especially in discussions of policy; the opinion of someone with a good predictive record should obviously hold substantially more persuasive weight than that of someone with an average record, or no record at all, while that person's advice should in turn probably be heeded more than that of someone with a comparatively poor record.
Until now, however, there has apparently been no serious attempt made to keep track of various predictions