US/president/elec/2012

Predictions

2011-09

The 2012 US presidential election is currently looking very depressing, given that it will probably be a contest between near-right Barack Obama (incumbent) and whoever the GOP picks. If they pick a fundie nutcase like Michelle Bachmann or Rick Perry, they will probably lose; if they pick a moderate or near-right candidate like Mitt Romney, then it barely matters who wins.

The only real hope is if a credible 3rd-party or independent candidate is able to make some headway.

Candidates

Independent / 3rd Party

• Bob Hall - candidacy annountement (Vimeo), Facebook
  • One argument to pick: he argues that taxes on corporations are ultimately passed on to individuals; this is bogus. If that were true, then corporate tax cuts would also be passed on to individuals, which is clearly not the case. (On the positive side, this argument at least makes some sense of the "FairTax" idea, even if it is based on an incorrect assumption.)
• Gary Johnson - campaign site, interview with John Stossel
  • Wants to legalize cannabis
  • Seems to be libertarian-leaning but not anti-government; suggests ways to make government smaller without destroying vital services
• Jerome White - socialist
• Jill Stein - Green Party - "Green New Deal"
• Laurence Kotlikoff - Americans Elect
• Michealene Risley - Americans Elect
• Rocky Anderson - interacts on Reddit

Republican

• Buddy Roemer (campaign, Ning): Lawrence Lessig has referred to him as a rootstriker (if I understand correctly)
• Jon Huntsman, Jr. (Wikipedia, campaign site)
  • withdrew on 2012-01-15 - NYT
  • believes in evolution and global warming (Twitter)
  • disapproves of Obamacare (campaign site): "[Obama] wasted an entire year pushing through a government health care plan that the American people didn't ask for and businesses can't afford."
    • Huntsman here repeats Obamacare Myths #1 and #5.
• Mitt Romney
• Rick Santorum suspended campaign on 2012-04-10