US/president/elec/2012

Predictions

2011-09

The 2012 US presidential election is currently looking very depressing, given that it will probably be a contest between near-right Barack Obama (incumbent) and whoever the GOP picks. If they pick a fundie nutcase like Michelle Bachmann or Rick Perry, they will probably lose; if they pick a moderate or near-right candidate like Mitt Romney, then it barely matters who wins.

The only real hope is if a credible 3rd-party or independent candidate is able to make some headway.

Candidates

Independent / 3rd Party

• Bob Hall - candidacy annountement (Vimeo), Facebook
  • One argument to pick: he argues that taxes on corporations are ultimately passed on to individuals; this is bogus. If that were true, then corporate tax cuts would also be passed on to individuals, which is clearly not the case. (On the positive side, this argument at least makes some sense of the "FairTax" idea, even if it is based on an incorrect assumption.)
• Gary Johnson - libertarian; former Governor of New Mexico (Republican)
• Jerome White - socialist
• Jill Stein - Green Party - "Green New Deal"
• Laurence Kotlikoff - Americans Elect
• Michealene Risley - Americans Elect
• Rocky Anderson - interacts on Reddit

Republican

• Buddy Roemer (campaign, Ning): Lawrence Lessig has referred to him as a rootstriker (if I understand correctly)
• Jon Huntsman, Jr. (Wikipedia, campaign site)
  • withdrew on 2012-01-15 - NYT
  • believes in evolution and global warming (Twitter)
  • disapproves of Obamacare (campaign site): "[Obama] wasted an entire year pushing through a government health care plan that the American people didn't ask for and businesses can't afford."
    • Huntsman here repeats Obamacare Myths #1 and #5.
• Mitt Romney
• Rick Santorum suspended campaign on 2012-04-10

Links

Reference

• Wikipedia
• Presidency 2012: list of candidates on the ballot in at least one state

Related

• 2014/04/24 [L..T] In 2014, it's like deja vu all over again «Bill Kristol, the Republican National Committee, and conservatives everywhere instead dug into the internals to declare the poll is... skewed. It's as if 2012 has already escaped their memories.»
• 2012/10/20 [L..T] Harris-Perry: "Disgusting" voter-suppression tactics still spreading Besides billboards in Ohio and Wisconsin threatening enormous fines and prison sentences for "voter fraud," Harris-Perry noted the appearance of a Spanish-language billboard spotted in Pennsylvania telling voters, "Si Quieres Votar Muéstrala," or, "If you want to vote, show it," a reference to the state voter identification law that was largely struck down in court earlier this month.