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2026/04/29 14:03

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reprinted without permission under Fair Use; minor corrections added

There was a story published in Analog back when it was still Astounding, about an alien race that wanted to conquer Earth, so they decided to collapse the entire economic structure of the planet.

Because Earth's economy was based on scarcity, they dropped into the situation two duplicator machines -- one could be used to duplicate the other and in a short time, there would be duplicators for everybody.

This meant that you could duplicate anything you could put on the tray (and the machines came with extra large trays for that purpose.) So that was the end of food shortages. It also meant you could duplicate TVs and car parts and clothing and shoes and jewelry and whatever.

Because Earth's economy was based on scarcity, abundance would destroy it, right?

Well, no -- what happened is that (as Heinlein said more than once) human beings are too damned ornery. In a very short time, human beings invented an economy based on abundance. I don't remember the title of the story (It might have been "Critical Mass" because Astounding published nearly a dozen stories with that title) or the author, and I don't remember the details of the resolution. But I do remember the setup and even remember one of the illos. And I do remember this: human beings are inventive and ornery.

Now why do I bring that up? Because human beings are inventive and ornery.

And as much pearl clutching as there has been about A.I., I am not yet ready to retreat to the fainting couch. (Those were a real thing, btw, because women's corsets were so tight, sometimes they literally had trouble catching their breath.)

We have seen predictions of doom before. The Luddites hated mechanical looms, others were certain that trains would go so fast that people wouldn't be able to breathe. After Edison demonstrated the electric light, some pundits called it a fad that wouldn't last. And the automobile would never replace horses. Some reputable people said that the airplane will always be a toy, it will never have any real use. Record executives feared that radio would destroy their market. And my favorite prediction of doom was the one from a then president of IBM who couldn't foresee that there would be a use or a market for home computers. (Of course, to him a computer was a room-sized installation.) Culturally, we have also seen the patriarchy deny the abilities of women. Recently someone shared an old screed about how women didn't need pockets. And I remember being told that gay people could not possibly be good parents ....

The people who are invested in the past do not notice that the future doesn't really care about anyone's opinions.

A.I. is inevitable. A.I. is still in its infancy and has not yet even approached adolescence, let alone maturity. But it will -- because the market will demand it -- and the boffins who are invested in it will look for ways to make it better, because they want to make a zillion dollars off of becoming the standard.

Will a lot of A.I. attempts fail? Oh, god yes. We will remember them the same way we remember the elcassette and RCA's needle-vision (whatever it was called) and the Edsel. Not fondly, but as examples of how not to do it.

Right now, A.I. is still in its experimental stage. It's taking its first unsteady steps, like a baby that has discovered it can stand upright -- but it is not always going to be inept. It is not always going to hallucinate wrong answers. It is not always going to be what it is today.

(Some companies have already demonstrated that they can make A.I. 100 times more efficient, thus reducing electricity and water uses. When optical chips come on the market, that will speed up the processing and further reduce electrical use. Those are not insoluble problems.)

My point is that the railroads built America. The automobile created mobility for the masses. The airplane changed the nature of war -- and peace. The electric light made it possible for people to have lives after the sun went down. The laptop expanded our ability to interact with the circumstances of our lives.

And A.I. ... ?

SF writers have made predictions, yes -- but I think ultimately, they will prove to be as accurate as the blind men with the elephant. Some of our predictions might reveal some of the things that A.I. can do, but the ultimate, much larger effect will be a transformative one that is not easily predictable, if at all.

At the moment, yes -- A.I. is a technology that has yet to prove itself, and it is a technology that will probably exhaust a lot of resources (and companies) before it finally proves its value to science and industry --

-- but I remain convinced that human beings are inventive and ornery and hard to control. We've seen that with other technological advances. I expect we will see that again.

Comments

  • Virginia Galloway
    Not the same story at all, but when I read your opening paragraphs I thought of "The Midas Plague" by Frederik Pohl (which was actually published in "Galaxy").
    I so far have no deep thoughts about AI *except* that I have shut it down in my various email programs and have stopped auto-correct on my phone because I'm more than capable of doing my own composing and spelling, thanks.
  • Robert Rothschild
    There’s a fascinating book called Command and Control (Eric Schlosser); while it focuses on nuclear weapons, the heart of the narrative is that our invention runs at least a generation ahead of our ability to understand and control new technology. Because we are “ornery” we press new technology into service in foolish and sometimes dangerous ways, figuring it out as we go.
  • Glenn Lee
    Let’s revisit this issue when Sky Net becomes sentient.
  • Mary Cruickshank-Peed
    Every time I see "AI is EVIL" I think about buggy whip manufacturers claiming automobiles were going to destroy the country. Humans adapt. Its what we do.
  • Todd Perkins
    I remember a similar story where the aliens sold Earth duplicators and devices that cured all disease, etc. in exchange for *all* our "worthless" radioactive materials. And then left - knowing the power sources would run out almost immediately.
  • Stu Chisholm
    Ah, yet what you just wrote is, in itself, a prediction. And a good one, based on the best predictor of the future there is: history. I remember back in 1974 I bought my first (then) miracle of modern technology: a Pulsar LED wristwatch. My friends in high school were amazed when I mentioned that the LEDs would retain 80% of their brightness over 80 years time (an easy stat to remember, and so far true - I still have it and it still works wonderfully) and mused that one day, these cool running, power frugal, long-lasting lights might replace all other lighting tech. The naysayers began to blurt:
    "But they only come in red!"
    My response: "For now."
    "But they're not bright enough!"
    Me: "At the moment."
    "They're too expensive!"
    "Sure....for now."
    This has been a pattern with all technology. It takes no great powers of clairvoyance to see that the $10,000 flat screen my company put in the lobby now costs $399 at Micro Center, is 40% larger and runs years longer without the thick, fan-punctuated frame. My first flat screen computer monitor was 15" square and cost $1k. The one I have now would be the envy of Captain Kirk and lists for under 1/3rd. We find ways to produce things more efficiently, at less cost. It's readily observable all around us in just about every technology imaginable. Today's data centers will be looked back on as we do ENIAC. One day, perhaps in our lifetimes, we may encounter a real life Lt. Cmdr. Data. But he won't be unique. They'll be everywhere. People might yawn at the sight of another 'droid.

My hope is that they all have Asimov's Rules of Robotics incorporated into their A.I. psyches.

  • Joanne Laessig
    Beautifully stated. I am reminded of a tale told by an older gentleman who used to work for the Harris corporation about how the technique we now know as Xeroxgraphy was developed there, but discounted as not really useful by the printing company. We all know where that went!
  • Lou Lernor
    "The Duplicators" by Murray Leinster.
  • Blind Lemming Chiffon
    We will always need elevator operators. Without them, elevators might fly into outer space, or to the Earth’s core. <end “but that joke isn’t funny!” font>™
  • Tracy Walker
    A well fitted corset is very comfortable, better than a modern bra. Only fashionistas practiced tight lacing. The culprit is tight lacing, not corsets.
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